Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -150 PFW +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +20 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -0.4 (+19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -0.8 (+19.2) | 134.5 (-6.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -0.8 (+19.2) | 134.2 (-6.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -0.9 (+19.1) | 132.8 (-4.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -0.6 (+19.4) | 133.6 (-5.6) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NKU 87 – 71 PFW |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PFW 79 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NKU 79 – 74 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NKU 69 – 68 PFW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | PFW 63 – 58 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#226) | 0.5 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#182) | 0.18 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#180) | 0.13 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#183) | 0.499 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.