Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -300 NKU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +5 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -9.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -8.0 (-13.0) | 150.9 (+2.1) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -7.7 (-12.7) | 151.6 (+1.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -9.0 (-14.0) | 151.7 (+1.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -7.6 (-12.6) | 151.7 (+1.3) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NKU 87 – 71 PFW |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PFW 79 – 77 NKU |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NKU 69 – 68 PFW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | PFW 63 – 58 NKU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | PFW 73 – 60 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#138) | -4.8 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#151) | -0.59 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#144) | -0.82 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#132) | 0.487 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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