Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -175 NKU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +13 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -12.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -10.5 (+2.5) | 148.3 (-15.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -7.8 (+5.2) | 147.0 (-14.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -11.4 (+1.6) | 148.2 (-15.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -10.9 (+2.1) | 146.4 (-13.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NKU 87 – 71 PFW |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PFW 79 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NKU 79 – 74 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NKU 69 – 68 PFW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | PFW 63 – 58 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-8 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#99) | -2.9 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#52) | -0.83 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#62) | -1.03 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#94) | 0.455 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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