Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | NKU -250 PFW +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +16 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -6.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -4.7 (+11.3) | 149.1 (+8.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -5.3 (+10.7) | 148.0 (+10.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -4.9 (+11.1) | 149.5 (+8.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -4.4 (+11.6) | 150.4 (+7.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | PFW 79 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NKU 79 – 74 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NKU 69 – 68 PFW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | PFW 63 – 58 NKU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | PFW 73 – 60 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#189) | -5.4 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#203) | -0.19 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#202) | -0.71 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#203) | 0.487 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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