Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -115 NKU -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +2 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -1.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -1.8 (+3.8) | 149.2 (+6.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -1.8 (+3.8) | 149.0 (+7.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -1.8 (+3.8) | 148.0 (+8.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -2.7 (+4.7) | 151.6 (+4.4) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NKU 87 – 71 PFW |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NKU 79 – 74 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NKU 69 – 68 PFW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | PFW 63 – 58 NKU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | PFW 73 – 60 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#274) | 0.1 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#315) | 1.04 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.94 (#317) | 0.85 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#301) | 0.541 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 27.4 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.0% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 61.7% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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