Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -163 PFW +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +5 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | NKU -2.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -3.2 (-8.2) | 150.2 (-29.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -2.4 (-7.4) | 151.2 (-30.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -2.5 (-7.5) | 151.1 (-30.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -2.2 (-7.2) | 151.1 (-30.1) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NKU 87 – 71 PFW |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PFW 79 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NKU 79 – 74 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NKU 69 – 68 PFW |
| Dec 30, 2023 | PFW 73 – 60 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#178) | 0.9 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#197) | -0.19 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#193) | -0.14 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#185) | 0.473 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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