Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -140 PFW +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +1 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -1.2 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -0.2 (+1.2) | 144.7 (-7.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -0.2 (+1.2) | 143.4 (-6.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -0.8 (+1.8) | 143.9 (-6.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -0.2 (+1.2) | 146.2 (-9.2) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NKU 87 – 71 PFW |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PFW 79 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NKU 79 – 74 PFW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | PFW 63 – 58 NKU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | PFW 73 – 60 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#208) | 2.7 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#225) | 0.60 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#220) | 0.84 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#243) | 0.535 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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