Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -150 SIU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +4 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -3.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -3.3 (-7.3) | 126.9 (-8.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -1.2 (-5.2) | 124.9 (-6.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -1.7 (-5.7) | 127.3 (-9.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -2.2 (-6.2) | 126.0 (-8.0) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | SIU 73 – 51 MOST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SIU 88 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | MOST 76 – 75 SIU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | SIU 54 – 51 MOST |
| Feb 5, 2023 | SIU 73 – 53 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 61.7 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#124) | 3.2 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#141) | 1.06 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#147) | 0.91 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#117) | 0.554 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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