The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · January 21, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -2.5 Away covered
O/U 122.5 Under
Money MOST -150 / SIU +115
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual SIU +4 118 Lost
Massey MOST -3.5 (-7.5)
Massey Totals 116.8 (+1.2)
Bradley-Terry 48%
Weighted B-T 55%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -2.2 (-6.2) 126.0 (-8.0) 55%
Efficiency Plus ML MOST -3.3 (-7.3) 126.9 (-8.9) 63%
Baseline Tuned ML MOST -1.2 (-5.2) 124.9 (-6.9) 56%
Baseline ML MOST -1.7 (-5.7) 127.3 (-9.3) 54%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 16, 2025 SIU 7351 MOST
Jan 12, 2025 SIU 8878 MOST
Feb 1, 2024 MOST 7675 SIU
Mar 4, 2023 SIU 5451 MOST
Feb 5, 2023 SIU 7353 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST SIU
Overall 17-15 23-10
Conference 12-8 14-6
Home 10-4 13-2
Away 5-8 8-6
Neutral 2-3 2-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.0 65.0
Avg Pts Against 63.7 61.7
Massey 3.0 (#124) 3.2 (#121)
Bradley-Terry 0.35 (#141) 1.06 (#84)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.35 (#147) 0.91 (#107)
RPI 0.533 (#117) 0.554 (#87)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST SIU
FG% 43.0% 44.7%
3PT% 33.6% 29.8%
REB / G 34.0 32.1
OREB / G 10.8 6.6
AST / TO 0.89 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.5% 51.9%
TOV% 19.7% 19.8%
ORB% 31.5% 21.5%
FT Rate 17.3% 23.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.6% 47.1%
Opp TOV% 19.9% 20.2%
DRB% 73.1% 74.7%
Opp FT Rate 22.1% 18.5%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.