Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -213 MOST +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +1 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -7.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -5.7 (-6.7) | 132.1 (+18.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -4.6 (-5.6) | 132.9 (+18.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -4.8 (-5.8) | 133.3 (+17.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -5.6 (-6.6) | 134.3 (+16.7) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | SIU 73 – 51 MOST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SIU 88 – 78 MOST |
| Mar 4, 2023 | SIU 54 – 51 MOST |
| Feb 5, 2023 | SIU 73 – 53 MOST |
| Jan 21, 2023 | SIU 61 – 57 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#102) | 1.0 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#133) | 0.37 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#113) | 0.45 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#150) | 0.511 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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