Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -3.0 Push |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -170 MOST +143 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +3 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -1.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -0.8 (+3.8) | 123.3 (-18.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -1.1 (+1.9) | 122.6 (-17.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.9 (+2.1) | 124.3 (-19.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -0.5 (+2.5) | 125.1 (-20.1) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | SIU 73 – 51 MOST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SIU 88 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | MOST 76 – 75 SIU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | SIU 73 – 53 MOST |
| Jan 21, 2023 | SIU 61 – 57 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 63.7 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#133) | 1.4 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#92) | 0.29 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#118) | 0.21 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#77) | 0.533 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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