Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -130 SIU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +22 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -5.2 (-27.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -3.3 (-25.3) | 139.3 (-15.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -3.5 (-25.5) | 141.2 (-17.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -3.3 (-25.3) | 141.4 (-17.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -3.4 (-25.4) | 142.2 (-18.2) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2025 | SIU 88 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | MOST 76 – 75 SIU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | SIU 54 – 51 MOST |
| Feb 5, 2023 | SIU 73 – 53 MOST |
| Jan 21, 2023 | SIU 61 – 57 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 1-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#238) | -5.7 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#263) | -1.15 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#243) | -1.30 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#283) | 0.461 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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