Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -135 MOST +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +10 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -1.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.8 (+9.2) | 137.5 (+28.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -0.1 (+9.9) | 138.5 (+27.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -0.2 (+10.2) | 139.8 (+26.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -0.6 (+10.6) | 141.4 (+24.6) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | SIU 73 – 51 MOST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | MOST 76 – 75 SIU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | SIU 54 – 51 MOST |
| Feb 5, 2023 | SIU 73 – 53 MOST |
| Jan 21, 2023 | SIU 61 – 57 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 2-18 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#270) | -3.9 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#295) | -0.96 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#285) | -0.87 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#245) | 0.452 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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