And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
Missouri Valley Conference · Banterra Center · January 12, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread SIU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 135.5 Over
Money SIU -135 / MOST +115
Model Predictions
Spread Total SIU win
Actual SIU +10 166 Won
Massey SIU -1.6 (+8.4)
Massey Totals 144.0 (+22.0)
Bradley-Terry 58%
Weighted B-T 53%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -0.6 (+10.6) 141.4 (+24.6) 45%
Efficiency Plus ML SIU -0.8 (+9.2) 137.5 (+28.5) 52%
Baseline Tuned ML SIU -0.1 (+9.9) 138.5 (+27.5) 51%
Baseline ML MOST -0.2 (+10.2) 139.8 (+26.2) 45%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 16, 2025 SIU 7351 MOST
Feb 1, 2024 MOST 7675 SIU
Mar 4, 2023 SIU 5451 MOST
Feb 5, 2023 SIU 7353 MOST
Jan 21, 2023 SIU 6157 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SIU MOST
Overall 14-19 9-23
Conference 8-12 2-18
Home 7-7 7-8
Away 5-8 1-12
Neutral 1-4 1-3
Last 5 0-5 1-4
Streak L1 L6
Avg Pts For 72.2 67.5
Avg Pts Against 75.5 71.9
Massey -6.2 (#270) -3.9 (#234)
Bradley-Terry -1.34 (#295) -0.96 (#257)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.55 (#285) -0.87 (#227)
RPI 0.461 (#245) 0.452 (#258)
Shooting & Four Factors SIU MOST
FG% 42.7% 42.9%
3PT% 31.1% 35.8%
REB / G 35.0 33.9
OREB / G 11.5 12.0
AST / TO 0.99 0.95
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.0% 49.2%
TOV% 18.8% 18.5%
ORB% 31.1% 33.5%
FT Rate 22.2% 24.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.9% 55.9%
Opp TOV% 16.7% 20.0%
DRB% 70.9% 72.4%
Opp FT Rate 24.5% 27.1%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.