Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Missouri Valley Conference · Banterra Center · February 5, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SIU -6.5 Home covered
O/U 120.5 Over
Money SIU -275 / MOST +210
Model Predictions
Spread Total SIU win
Actual SIU +20 126 Won
Massey SIU -4.5 (+15.5)
Massey Totals 116.9 (+9.1)
Bradley-Terry 80%
Weighted B-T 79%
Baseline Plus ML SIU -3.5 (+16.5) 124.6 (+1.4) 68%
Efficiency Plus ML SIU -2.3 (+17.7) 120.6 (+5.4) 64%
Baseline Tuned ML SIU -2.7 (+17.3) 123.2 (+2.8) 65%
Baseline ML SIU -3.6 (+16.4) 124.3 (+1.7) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 16, 2025 SIU 7351 MOST
Jan 12, 2025 SIU 8878 MOST
Feb 1, 2024 MOST 7675 SIU
Mar 4, 2023 SIU 5451 MOST
Jan 21, 2023 SIU 6157 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SIU MOST
Overall 23-10 17-15
Conference 14-6 12-8
Home 13-2 10-4
Away 8-6 5-8
Neutral 2-2 2-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.0 65.0
Avg Pts Against 61.7 63.7
Massey 2.7 (#124) 1.8 (#136)
Bradley-Terry 0.96 (#92) 0.18 (#152)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.72 (#121) 0.16 (#156)
RPI 0.564 (#68) 0.526 (#127)
Shooting & Four Factors SIU MOST
FG% 44.8% 43.0%
3PT% 31.1% 32.6%
REB / G 31.3 34.4
OREB / G 6.7 11.2
AST / TO 1.02 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.3% 50.0%
TOV% 19.8% 19.4%
ORB% 22.0% 32.4%
FT Rate 21.9% 17.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.4% 49.6%
Opp TOV% 20.4% 19.8%
DRB% 72.5% 72.7%
Opp FT Rate 19.5% 22.2%

Game Analysis

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