Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -275 MOST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +20 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -4.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -2.3 (+17.7) | 120.6 (+5.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -2.7 (+17.3) | 123.2 (+2.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -3.6 (+16.4) | 124.3 (+1.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -3.5 (+16.5) | 124.6 (+1.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | SIU 73 – 51 MOST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SIU 88 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | MOST 76 – 75 SIU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | SIU 54 – 51 MOST |
| Jan 21, 2023 | SIU 61 – 57 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 63.7 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#124) | 1.8 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#92) | 0.18 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#121) | 0.16 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#68) | 0.526 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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