Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA -188 SFBK +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +26 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -6.9 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -4.8 (+21.2) | 138.7 (+9.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -4.3 (+21.7) | 138.1 (+9.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -4.2 (+21.8) | 137.3 (+10.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -4.8 (+21.2) | 138.8 (+9.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2023 | SFPA 72 – 64 SFBK |
| Feb 19, 2022 | SFBK 80 – 72 SFPA |
| Jan 7, 2022 | SFBK 70 – 53 SFPA |
| Feb 12, 2021 | SFPA 80 – 66 SFBK |
| Feb 12, 2021 | SFBK 70 – 67 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#331) | -13.1 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#327) | -2.02 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#332) | -2.83 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#325) | 0.415 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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