Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SFBK +110 SFPA -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFBK +17 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | SFBK -0.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFBK -0.4 (+16.6) | 140.7 (-17.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFBK -0.7 (+16.3) | 138.7 (-15.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -0.6 (+17.6) | 141.1 (-18.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFBK -0.2 (+16.8) | 141.7 (-18.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2023 | SFPA 72 – 64 SFBK |
| Jan 21, 2023 | SFPA 87 – 61 SFBK |
| Feb 19, 2022 | SFBK 80 – 72 SFPA |
| Feb 12, 2021 | SFPA 80 – 66 SFBK |
| Feb 12, 2021 | SFBK 70 – 67 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFBK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 3-9 | 4-8 |
| Away | 7-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#332) | -7.4 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#346) | -2.29 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.04 (#344) | -2.80 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.361 (#349) | 0.386 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFBK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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