Betting Lines
| Spread | SFBK -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SFBK -115 SFPA -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | SFBK -0.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFBK -0.3 (-8.3) | 137.9 (-1.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFBK -0.3 (-8.3) | 136.6 (-0.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFBK -0.1 (-8.1) | 138.0 (-2.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFBK -0.6 (-8.6) | 138.1 (-2.1) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2023 | SFPA 87 – 61 SFBK |
| Feb 19, 2022 | SFBK 80 – 72 SFPA |
| Jan 7, 2022 | SFBK 70 – 53 SFPA |
| Feb 12, 2021 | SFPA 80 – 66 SFBK |
| Feb 12, 2021 | SFBK 70 – 67 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFBK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -13.5 (#351) | -10.8 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#333) | -2.13 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#347) | -2.74 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#310) | 0.404 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFBK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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