Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA -200 SFBK +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFBK +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -4.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -4.3 (-7.3) | 152.5 (-15.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -3.1 (-6.1) | 152.5 (-15.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -3.6 (-6.6) | 154.3 (-17.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -4.2 (-7.2) | 152.6 (-15.6) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2023 | SFPA 72 – 64 SFBK |
| Jan 21, 2023 | SFPA 87 – 61 SFBK |
| Feb 19, 2022 | SFBK 80 – 72 SFPA |
| Jan 7, 2022 | SFBK 70 – 53 SFPA |
| Feb 12, 2021 | SFPA 80 – 66 SFBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 9-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#248) | -6.9 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#230) | -0.71 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#218) | -0.88 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#212) | 0.436 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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