Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ND -213 BC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +12 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -6.1 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -4.0 (-16.0) | 138.6 (+17.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -6.0 (-18.0) | 135.1 (+20.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -4.2 (-16.2) | 138.4 (+17.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -4.1 (-16.1) | 138.5 (+17.5) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BC 77 – 69 ND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ND 68 – 64 BC |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ND 97 – 94 BC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ND 78 – 60 BC |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BC 61 – 58 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-8 | 9-7 |
| Away | 0-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#176) | -2.7 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#179) | -0.16 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#164) | -0.07 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#187) | 0.478 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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