Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ND -340 BC +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | ND -9.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -9.9 (-5.9) | 134.9 (-2.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -8.7 (-4.7) | 135.0 (-3.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -8.2 (-4.2) | 133.3 (-1.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -8.7 (-4.7) | 135.2 (-3.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BC 77 – 69 ND |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ND 97 – 94 BC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ND 78 – 60 BC |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BC 61 – 58 ND |
| Jan 16, 2024 | BC 63 – 59 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#84) | 1.0 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#74) | -0.20 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#69) | 0.05 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#69) | 0.493 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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