Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | ND +110 BC -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +3 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | BC -2.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -3.2 (+0.2) | 133.2 (-14.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -3.1 (+0.1) | 130.9 (-11.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -2.2 (-0.8) | 131.1 (-12.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -2.4 (-0.6) | 133.6 (-14.6) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BC 77 – 69 ND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ND 68 – 64 BC |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ND 97 – 94 BC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ND 78 – 60 BC |
| Jan 16, 2024 | BC 63 – 59 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#163) | 6.6 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#207) | 1.10 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#196) | 1.45 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#191) | 0.553 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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