Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | BC +155 ND -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +3 | 191 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -6.2 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+46.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -4.0 (+1.0) | 142.1 (+48.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -4.3 (+1.3) | 138.4 (+52.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -4.8 (+1.8) | 140.8 (+50.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -4.4 (+1.4) | 141.4 (+49.6) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BC 77 – 69 ND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ND 68 – 64 BC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ND 78 – 60 BC |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BC 61 – 58 ND |
| Jan 16, 2024 | BC 63 – 59 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-8 | 11-5 |
| Away | 0-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#219) | 6.1 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#187) | -0.06 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#210) | 0.45 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#229) | 0.480 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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