Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | BC +102 ND -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ND -2.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -3.0 (+11.0) | 140.3 (+5.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -2.7 (+10.7) | 137.8 (+8.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -2.6 (+10.6) | 140.6 (+5.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -3.4 (+11.4) | 141.6 (+4.4) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ND 68 – 64 BC |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ND 97 – 94 BC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ND 78 – 60 BC |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BC 61 – 58 ND |
| Jan 16, 2024 | BC 63 – 59 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#144) | 6.8 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#201) | 0.99 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#176) | 1.35 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#243) | 0.523 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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