Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ND -750 BC +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +18 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ND -14.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -12.6 (+5.4) | 144.6 (-6.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -9.4 (+8.6) | 143.0 (-5.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -11.3 (+6.7) | 144.6 (-6.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -11.9 (+6.1) | 145.3 (-7.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BC 77 – 69 ND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ND 68 – 64 BC |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ND 97 – 94 BC |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BC 61 – 58 ND |
| Jan 16, 2024 | BC 63 – 59 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-16 |
| Home | 11-5 | 9-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#78) | -3.7 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#171) | -0.20 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#125) | -0.45 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#162) | 0.481 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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