Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | BC -500 ND +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +4 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | BC -10.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -9.6 (-5.6) | 138.5 (-16.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -7.8 (-3.8) | 137.3 (-15.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -8.4 (-4.4) | 138.3 (-16.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -9.0 (-5.0) | 138.7 (-16.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BC 77 – 69 ND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ND 68 – 64 BC |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ND 97 – 94 BC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ND 78 – 60 BC |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BC 61 – 58 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#81) | 0.2 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#83) | -0.14 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#82) | -0.06 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#78) | 0.511 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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