Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | URI +105 GMU -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +7 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -1.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -1.9 (-5.1) | 137.6 (+13.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -1.9 (-5.1) | 137.2 (+13.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.5 (-5.5) | 138.3 (+12.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -2.0 (-5.0) | 139.8 (+11.2) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | URI 74 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GMU 61 – 50 URI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GMU 82 – 67 URI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | URI 62 – 59 GMU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GMU 69 – 51 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#227) | 2.7 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#256) | 0.32 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#236) | 0.47 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#229) | 0.535 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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