Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | URI +145 GMU -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +18 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -4.4 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -4.6 (-13.4) | 142.8 (-22.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -4.4 (-13.6) | 140.2 (-20.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.4 (-14.6) | 143.2 (-23.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -4.1 (-13.9) | 143.7 (-23.7) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | URI 74 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GMU 61 – 50 URI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GMU 82 – 67 URI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | URI 62 – 59 GMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | GMU 92 – 84 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#211) | 5.0 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#200) | 0.95 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#184) | 1.17 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#181) | 0.551 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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