Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | URI +105 GMU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | URI -2.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -0.6 (+2.4) | 141.9 (-20.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -1.9 (+1.1) | 140.3 (-19.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | URI -2.2 (+0.8) | 140.9 (-19.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -1.7 (+1.3) | 140.6 (-19.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | URI 74 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GMU 61 – 50 URI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GMU 82 – 67 URI |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GMU 69 – 51 URI |
| Jan 27, 2024 | GMU 92 – 84 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 18-2 |
| Away | 1-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#87) | 7.8 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#74) | 0.58 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#82) | 1.85 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#36) | 0.528 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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