Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | URI +110 GMU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -1.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -0.8 (+9.8) | 132.3 (+6.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -0.4 (+8.6) | 131.7 (+7.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.9 (+10.9) | 132.0 (+7.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -1.1 (+10.1) | 133.1 (+5.9) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | GMU 61 – 50 URI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GMU 82 – 67 URI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | URI 62 – 59 GMU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GMU 69 – 51 URI |
| Jan 27, 2024 | GMU 92 – 84 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 17-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#117) | 7.6 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#135) | 2.82 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#122) | 3.40 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#135) | 0.612 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 35.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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