Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -425 URI +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +15 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -8.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -8.3 (+6.7) | 138.6 (+10.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -9.9 (+5.1) | 137.2 (+11.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -8.5 (+6.5) | 136.2 (+12.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -8.2 (+6.8) | 137.0 (+12.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | URI 74 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GMU 61 – 50 URI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | URI 62 – 59 GMU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GMU 69 – 51 URI |
| Jan 27, 2024 | GMU 92 – 84 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 18-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#77) | 2.8 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#54) | 0.64 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#46) | 0.76 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#40) | 0.550 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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