Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -600 URI +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +8 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -11.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -10.1 (-2.1) | 137.3 (+38.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -10.0 (-2.0) | 139.3 (+36.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -10.1 (-2.1) | 140.7 (+35.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -10.4 (-2.4) | 137.8 (+38.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | URI 74 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GMU 61 – 50 URI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GMU 82 – 67 URI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | URI 62 – 59 GMU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GMU 69 – 51 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-8 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#94) | -2.3 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#71) | 0.01 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#83) | 0.11 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#60) | 0.517 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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