Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -275 NCSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -3.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -4.2 (+6.8) | 154.5 (-5.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -5.5 (+5.5) | 153.2 (-4.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -3.9 (+7.1) | 153.9 (-4.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -4.1 (+6.9) | 153.2 (-4.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 58 UNC |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNC 97 – 73 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNC 63 – 61 NCSU |
| Mar 17, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 76 UNC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNC 79 – 70 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#36) | 11.3 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#35) | 2.45 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#30) | 2.90 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#24) | 0.588 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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