Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU +165 UNC -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -4.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (-34.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.3 (+1.3) | 154.5 (-30.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.1 (+1.1) | 151.2 (-27.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -4.2 (+2.2) | 150.9 (-26.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -3.9 (+1.9) | 152.5 (-28.5) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 58 UNC |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNC 97 – 73 NCSU |
| Mar 17, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 76 UNC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNC 79 – 70 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UNC 67 – 54 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 0-11 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#92) | 14.0 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#126) | 2.42 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#110) | 3.13 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#160) | 0.632 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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