Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -750 NCSU +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +24 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -11.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -10.8 (+13.2) | 146.7 (+23.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -10.8 (+13.2) | 146.3 (+23.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -11.0 (+13.0) | 146.1 (+23.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -10.6 (+13.4) | 146.1 (+23.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 58 UNC |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNC 63 – 61 NCSU |
| Mar 17, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 76 UNC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNC 79 – 70 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UNC 67 – 54 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#45) | 4.2 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#50) | -0.12 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#49) | 0.13 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#28) | 0.469 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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