Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -600 NCSU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +8 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -9.9 (-17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -8.8 (-16.8) | 151.4 (+8.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -8.8 (-16.8) | 151.4 (+8.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -9.9 (-17.9) | 151.0 (+9.0) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -9.2 (-17.2) | 152.8 (+7.2) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 58 UNC |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNC 97 – 73 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNC 63 – 61 NCSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNC 79 – 70 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UNC 67 – 54 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#8) | 8.7 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#4) | 1.62 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#4) | 1.93 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#6) | 0.531 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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