Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -375 UNC +295 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +24 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -2.9 (+21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -2.3 (+21.7) | 155.0 (-15.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -2.3 (+21.7) | 154.4 (-14.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -2.3 (+21.7) | 157.1 (-17.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -2.6 (+21.4) | 157.4 (-17.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNC 97 – 73 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNC 63 – 61 NCSU |
| Mar 17, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 76 UNC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNC 79 – 70 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UNC 67 – 54 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 18-0 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#27) | 17.0 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#36) | 3.23 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#40) | 3.77 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#37) | 0.645 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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