Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -275 UPST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +6 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -10.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -9.6 (-3.6) | 137.2 (-15.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -7.8 (-1.8) | 138.6 (-16.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -8.2 (-2.2) | 137.8 (-15.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -8.4 (-2.4) | 136.5 (-14.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCA 76 – 67 UPST |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCA 83 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCA 92 – 85 UPST |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 92 UPST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNCA 77 – 64 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-0 | 11-2 |
| Away | 10-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#182) | -7.2 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#117) | -0.51 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#133) | -0.96 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#113) | 0.465 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.