Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -310 UPST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -6.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -7.0 (+2.0) | 137.8 (+5.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -4.8 (+4.2) | 135.9 (+7.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -4.8 (+4.2) | 136.2 (+6.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -5.4 (+3.6) | 139.2 (+3.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCA 83 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCA 92 – 85 UPST |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 92 UPST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNCA 77 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNCA 95 – 67 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#217) | -7.0 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#259) | -1.47 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#239) | -2.12 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#233) | 0.450 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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