Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -650 UPST +460 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +28 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -8.0 (+20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -6.6 (+21.4) | 144.9 (+17.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -5.7 (+22.3) | 143.1 (+18.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -5.6 (+22.4) | 144.0 (+18.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -5.7 (+22.3) | 146.5 (+15.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCA 76 – 67 UPST |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCA 83 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCA 92 – 85 UPST |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 92 UPST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNCA 77 – 64 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#235) | -6.7 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#147) | -1.30 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#157) | -1.94 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#144) | 0.462 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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