Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UPST -115 UNCA -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +14 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -1.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -0.3 (-13.7) | 142.0 (+10.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.5 (-13.5) | 142.9 (+9.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -0.2 (-14.2) | 139.7 (+12.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -0.0 (-14.0) | 140.4 (+11.6) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCA 76 – 67 UPST |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCA 92 – 85 UPST |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 92 UPST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNCA 77 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNCA 95 – 67 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#258) | -3.7 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#278) | -1.19 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#305) | -1.23 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#235) | 0.458 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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