Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -1200 UPST +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +1 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -14.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -12.3 (-11.3) | 158.6 (+26.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -11.1 (-10.1) | 157.8 (+27.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -10.9 (-9.9) | 159.4 (+25.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -11.0 (-10.0) | 160.4 (+24.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCA 76 – 67 UPST |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCA 83 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCA 92 – 85 UPST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNCA 77 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNCA 95 – 67 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 2-14 |
| Home | 13-1 | 4-10 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 85.5 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#194) | -12.4 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#172) | -2.18 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#168) | -2.70 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#125) | 0.410 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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