Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +188 UNCA -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +13 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -3.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -2.7 (-10.3) | 145.0 (-4.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -3.2 (-9.8) | 145.4 (-4.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -3.3 (-9.7) | 145.8 (-4.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -3.4 (-9.6) | 147.6 (-6.6) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCA 76 – 67 UPST |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCA 83 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCA 92 – 85 UPST |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 92 UPST |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNCA 95 – 67 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 12-4 |
| Home | 6-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#285) | -0.3 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#292) | 0.60 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#298) | 0.57 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#286) | 0.543 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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