Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +425 UNCA -650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +7 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -9.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -9.2 (+2.2) | 158.3 (+18.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -8.9 (+1.9) | 156.9 (+20.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -9.7 (+2.7) | 157.0 (+20.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -9.9 (+2.9) | 158.2 (+18.8) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCA 76 – 67 UPST |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCA 83 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 92 UPST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNCA 77 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNCA 95 – 67 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 11-5 |
| Home | 4-10 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-14 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.5 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -13.2 (#347) | -1.0 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#349) | 0.71 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.09 (#344) | 0.67 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#347) | 0.560 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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