Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -500 DEN +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +15 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -9.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -6.8 (+8.2) | 143.3 (-6.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -9.2 (+5.8) | 142.5 (-5.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -7.7 (+7.3) | 144.5 (-7.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -7.8 (+7.2) | 143.7 (-6.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | DEN 79 – 61 SDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SDST 87 – 79 DEN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DEN 78 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SDST 91 – 70 DEN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SDST 76 – 68 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#184) | -5.9 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#133) | -0.56 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#167) | -1.09 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#97) | 0.450 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 19.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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