Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -300 UNH +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -8.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -6.6 (+4.4) | 141.4 (+7.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -6.2 (+4.8) | 139.9 (+9.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -6.2 (+4.8) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -6.0 (+5.0) | 142.0 (+7.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 69 UNH |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UMBC 85 – 63 UNH |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 74 UNH |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNH 79 – 78 UMBC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNH 79 – 76 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 68.0 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#203) | -5.9 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#168) | -1.16 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#179) | -1.54 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#190) | 0.439 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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