Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -333 FSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -13.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -11.8 (-18.8) | 145.1 (-10.1) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -9.3 (-16.3) | 146.2 (-11.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -11.6 (-18.6) | 145.3 (-10.3) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -11.9 (-18.9) | 144.8 (-9.8) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | FSU 75 – 74 PITT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | FSU 82 – 70 PITT |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PITT 88 – 73 FSU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | PITT 83 – 75 FSU |
| Feb 10, 2022 | PITT 56 – 51 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-11 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#64) | -0.9 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#48) | -0.51 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#47) | -0.48 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#47) | 0.474 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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