Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | FSU +155 PITT -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -6.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -5.7 (-2.3) | 146.2 (+11.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -6.1 (-1.9) | 147.9 (+10.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -6.4 (-1.6) | 148.8 (+9.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -6.9 (-1.1) | 148.3 (+9.7) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | FSU 75 – 74 PITT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | FSU 82 – 70 PITT |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PITT 88 – 73 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | FSU 71 – 64 PITT |
| Feb 10, 2022 | PITT 56 – 51 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 5-11 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#204) | 8.2 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#219) | 1.89 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#202) | 2.23 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#205) | 0.579 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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