Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | FSU +130 PITT -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -3.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -1.3 (+13.3) | 149.4 (+2.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -1.1 (+13.1) | 148.3 (+3.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -1.7 (+13.7) | 148.6 (+3.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -1.9 (+13.9) | 150.0 (+2.0) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | FSU 75 – 74 PITT |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PITT 88 – 73 FSU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | PITT 83 – 75 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | FSU 71 – 64 PITT |
| Feb 10, 2022 | PITT 56 – 51 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#69) | 15.8 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#74) | 2.80 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#77) | 3.53 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#63) | 0.625 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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