Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +5 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -11.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -9.7 (-14.7) | 131.3 (-24.3) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -10.9 (-15.9) | 127.3 (-20.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -10.6 (-15.6) | 133.1 (-26.1) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -9.9 (-14.9) | 133.4 (-26.4) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | FSU 75 – 74 PITT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | FSU 82 – 70 PITT |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PITT 88 – 73 FSU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | PITT 83 – 75 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | FSU 71 – 64 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-11 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#83) | -1.4 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#82) | -0.25 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#101) | -0.31 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#84) | 0.469 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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