Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PITT +105 FSU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -0.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -0.4 (-1.4) | 144.6 (+4.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -1.1 (-2.1) | 147.5 (+1.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -0.2 (-1.2) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -0.4 (-1.4) | 144.2 (+4.8) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | FSU 82 – 70 PITT |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PITT 88 – 73 FSU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | PITT 83 – 75 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | FSU 71 – 64 PITT |
| Feb 10, 2022 | PITT 56 – 51 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-10 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#97) | 8.1 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#118) | 1.42 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#110) | 1.74 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#185) | 0.540 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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