They were all in love with dying, they we're doing it in Texas. "Pepper" - Butthole Surfers
Atlantic Coast Conference · Petersen Events Center · March 5, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread FSU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money PITT +105 / FSU -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total PITT win
Actual FSU +1 149 Lost
Massey PITT -0.8 (-1.8)
Massey Totals 148.4 (+0.6)
Bradley-Terry 40%
Weighted B-T 40%
Efficiency Plus ML PITT -1.1 (-2.1) 147.5 (+1.5) 59%
Baseline Tuned ML PITT -0.2 (-1.2) 143.1 (+5.9) 51%
Baseline ML PITT -0.4 (-1.4) 144.2 (+4.8) 46%
Baseline Plus ML PITT -0.4 (-1.4) 144.6 (+4.4) 46%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 16, 2025 FSU 8270 PITT
Mar 6, 2024 PITT 8873 FSU
Feb 11, 2023 PITT 8375 FSU
Jan 21, 2023 FSU 7164 PITT
Feb 10, 2022 PITT 5651 FSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PITT FSU
Overall 13-20 18-15
Conference 5-13 10-8
Home 8-10 11-6
Away 3-8 6-5
Neutral 2-2 1-4
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.5 80.4
Avg Pts Against 71.8 77.9
Massey 5.9 (#97) 8.1 (#77)
Bradley-Terry 0.49 (#118) 1.42 (#71)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.76 (#110) 1.74 (#73)
RPI 0.503 (#185) 0.540 (#94)
Shooting & Four Factors PITT FSU
FG% 43.7% 42.9%
3PT% 33.7% 31.7%
REB / G 34.4 36.2
OREB / G 11.7 12.1
AST / TO 1.16 1.27
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.9% 50.9%
TOV% 17.5% 15.4%
ORB% 33.5% 31.6%
FT Rate 20.3% 25.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.8% 52.2%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 19.1%
DRB% 71.6% 67.3%
Opp FT Rate 23.8% 23.5%

Game Analysis

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