Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -333 FSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +15 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -8.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -9.7 (+5.3) | 146.7 (+14.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -7.8 (+7.2) | 145.8 (+15.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -7.7 (+7.3) | 147.1 (+13.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -8.2 (+6.8) | 147.8 (+13.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | FSU 75 – 74 PITT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | FSU 82 – 70 PITT |
| Feb 11, 2023 | PITT 83 – 75 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | FSU 71 – 64 PITT |
| Feb 10, 2022 | PITT 56 – 51 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#43) | 7.0 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#54) | 1.18 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#58) | 1.51 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#97) | 0.547 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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